As I look at the GOP race for the presidential nomination and impending infusion of Fred Thompson I feel there is a 30-40% chance of real convention battle that could lead to a brokered convention. Below you will find a nice short history of party convention from Micheal Beschloss that is useful in understanding the past.
Now here is how you get to the possible wacky summer of 08 for the GOP (In my feeble mind). Mitt wins early put not strong in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada. Giuliani splits South Caroline with McCain and other states in the two week or so run to Feb 5th. Then on Feb 5th there is no clear winner in delegate count, including Huckabee winning enough delegates to be a force. After Feb 5th you then see a Thompson run at the remaining states, but no on is with in 10% of the delegates they need to get the nomination.
This confusion through the process keeps at least late Feb will leave the 5 dwarfs still hanging on and in some cases like Paul, Brownback and Tancredo with 20-60 delegate which will make them look like interesting Prom dates for the the Huckabee and McCain acting like the AV Geek a week before prom asking anyone to join them at the dance. It will also be exacerbated by Newt. He will be a big flirt in the late fall and after Feb 5th. It could leave use with the first and maybe only brokered convention in 21st century. Now this not majority chance, but as long a the delegate dwarfs are in the race on Feb 5th it could happen.
So if you have a brokered convention who is the unfortunate or fortunate nominee who this late summer morning has no clue what a waits them a year from now? Sonny Perdue of Georgia, Matt Blunt of Missouri, M. Jodi Rell of Connecticut, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Mark Sanford of South Caroline among the govenors and LaMar Alexander of Tennessee, Chris Bond of Missouri, Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, John Cornyn of Texas are some of the names that will make the run as the GOP's candidate.
If this happens and Hillary grabs the Dems nomination early this will hamper her elections, because the pre-convention GOP fight and spectacle will leave her without momentum in the view of the public. A public with will spend the spring turning the politics off after spending the winter with the press ramming the races down thier throat.
Now if the Terrorists strike before the convention my 30-40% goes to 0% and Hillary and Rudy will fight the race in the fall of 08.
Just my wild prediction anyway!
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/convention96/retro/beschloss_history.html
Labels: broked convention, elections 08 gop, gop convention, republician convention prediction
